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The Effect of Model Selection on Confidence Regions and Prediction Regions

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Author Info
Kabaila, Paul
Abstract

P 181) has recently considered the question of how the use of a model selection procedure affects the asymptotic distribution of parameter estimators and related statistics. An important potential application of such results is to the generation of confidence regions for the parameters of interest. It is demonstrated that a great deal of care must be exercised in any attempt at such an application. We also consider the effect of model selection on prediction regions. It is demonstrated that the use of asymptotic results for the construction of prediction regions requires the same sort of care as the use of such results for the construction of confidence regions.

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File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0266466600009403
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Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 11 (1995)
Issue (Month): 03 (June)
Pages: 537-549
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:03:p:537-549_00

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  1. Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2007. "Validity of Subsampling and "Plug-in Asymptotic" Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1620, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Donald W.K. Andrews & Biao Lu, 1999. "Consistent Model and Moment Selection Criteria for GMM Estimation with Applications to Dynamic Panel Data Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1233, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Joshua Gallin & Randal Verbrugge, 2007. "Improving the CPI’s Age-Bias Adjustment: Leverage, Disaggregation and Model Averaging," Working Papers 411, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2007. "Confidence Sets Based on Sparse Estimators Are Necessarily Large," MPRA Paper 5677, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pötscher, Benedikt M. & Schneider, Ulrike, 2007. "On the distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator," MPRA Paper 6913, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
  6. Leeb, Hannes & Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2005. "Can One Estimate the Unconditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators ?," MPRA Paper 72, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2004. "Automated Discovery in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1469, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Pötscher, Benedikt M. & Leeb, Hannes, 2007. "On the distribution of penalized maximum likelihood estimators: The LASSO, SCAD, and thresholding," MPRA Paper 5615, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009. [Downloadable!]
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