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Floods and armed conflict

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  • Ghimire, Ramesh
  • Ferreira, Susana

Abstract

We estimate the impact of large, catastrophic floods on internal armed conflict using global data on large floods between 1985 and 2009. The results suggest that while large floods did not ignite new conflict, they fueled existing armed conflicts. Floods and armed conflict are endogenously determined, and we show that empirically addressing this endogeneity is important. The estimated effects of floods on conflict prevalence are substantially larger in specifications that control for the endogeneity of floods, suggesting that treating natural disasters as exogenous phenomena may underestimate their impacts on sociopolitical outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghimire, Ramesh & Ferreira, Susana, 2016. "Floods and armed conflict," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 23-52, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:21:y:2016:i:01:p:23-52_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 560-594.
    2. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Post-Print halshs-00825807, HAL.
    3. Ghimire, Ramesh & Ferreira, Susana, 2013. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: The Case of Large Floods," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142587, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13045r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Mar 2016.

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