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Decision Theory Without “Independence†or Without “Orderingâ€

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  • Seidenfeld, Teddy

Abstract

It is a familiar argument that advocates accommodating the so-called paradoxes of decision theory by abandoning the “independence†postulate. After all, if we grant that choice reveals preference, the anomalous choice patterns of the Allais and Ellsberg problems (reviewed in Section 3) violate postulate P2 (“sure thing†) of Savage's (1954) system. The strategy of making room for new preference patterns by relaxing independence is adopted in each of the following works: Samuelson (1950), Kahneman and Tversky's “Prospect Theory†(1979), Allais and Hagen (1979), Fishburn (1981), Chew and MacCrimmon (1979), McClennen (1983), and in closely argued essays by Machina (1982, 1983 [see the latter for an extensive bibliography]).

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  • Seidenfeld, Teddy, 1988. "Decision Theory Without “Independence†or Without “Orderingâ€," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 267-290, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:ecnphi:v:4:y:1988:i:02:p:267-290_00
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    Cited by:

    1. David Bickel, 2015. "Blending Bayesian and frequentist methods according to the precision of prior information with applications to hypothesis testing," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 24(4), pages 523-546, November.
    2. A. Nebout, 2014. "Sequential decision making without independence: a new conceptual approach," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 77(1), pages 85-110, June.
    3. Nathalie Etchart-Vincent, 2005. "Adequate Moods for Non-EU Decision Making in a Sequential Framework," Working Papers halshs-00004832, HAL.

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