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Party Cues in the News: Democratic Elites, Republican Backlash, and the Dynamics of Climate Skepticism

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  • Merkley, Eric
  • Stecula, Dominik A.

Abstract

Supporters of the Republican Party have become much more skeptical of the science of climate change since the 1990s. This article argues that out-group cues from Democratic elites caused a backlash that resulted in greater climate skepticism. The authors construct aggregate measures of climate skepticism from nearly 200 public opinion polls at the quarterly level from 2001 to 2014 and at the annual level from 1986 to 2014. They also build time-series measures of possible contributors to climate skepticism using an automated media content analysis. The analyses provide evidence that cues from party elites – especially from Democrats – are associated with aggregate dynamics in climate change skepticism, including among supporters of the Republican Party. The study also involves a party cue survey experiment administered to a sample of 3,000 Americans through Amazon Mechanical Turk to provide more evidence of causality. Together, these results highlight the importance of out-group cue taking and suggest that climate change skepticism should be examined through the lens of elite-led opinion formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Merkley, Eric & Stecula, Dominik A., 2021. "Party Cues in the News: Democratic Elites, Republican Backlash, and the Dynamics of Climate Skepticism," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 1439-1456, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:51:y:2021:i:4:p:1439-1456_5
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    Cited by:

    1. Valentina Stöhr, 2022. "Climate protection in Germany: Party cues in a multi-party system," Munich Papers in Political Economy 23, Munich School of Politics and Public Policy and the School of Management at the Technical University of Munich.
    2. Hassan Afrouzi & Carolina Arteaga & Emily Weisburst, 2022. "Can Leaders Persuade? Examining Movement in Immigration Beliefs," CESifo Working Paper Series 9593, CESifo.

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