The Scientific Status of Political Science: A Note on the Oedipus Effect

Ian Budge 'A Comment on Self-fulfilling and Self-defeating Predictions’, in this Journal, III (1973), 249–50 attempted to show that, despite objections to the contrary, enduring generalizations about political behaviour can be made even while acknowledging the existence of what Sir Karl Popper has called the ‘Oedipus effect’. Interestingly, Budge proceeds, not by questioning whether change in the level of information leads to change in patterns of behaviour, but by showing that under present conditions the amount of information possessed by the vast majority of the population is sufficiently low to preclude marked alterations of behaviour. A critic, however, might point out that Budge's line of argument leaves open the possibility that future changes in the level and accuracy of the information held by the population will lead them to alter their behaviour and that, consequently, the objection has not really been met. The imaginary critic's response highlights the difficulty of dealing with the so-called Oedipus effect when we proceed from the prevailing approach to the study of politics. I wish to indicate why this may be so, and to suggest a possible solution.