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Too Much of a Bad Thing? Civilian Victimization and Bargaining in Civil War

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  • Wood, Reed M.
  • Kathman, Jacob D.

Abstract

While studies of the motives for intentional insurgent violence against civilians are now common, relatively little academic research has focused on the impact of victimization on conflict processes or war outcomes. This article addresses this gap in the literature. Specifically, the authors examine the influence of civilian victimization on bargaining between the regime and insurgents during a civil war. A curvilinear relationship between the level of civilian victimization used by insurgents and the likelihood that conflict ends in negotiated settlement is posited. The probability of settlement is highest for groups that engage in a moderate level of civilian killing but declines at particularly high levels. A competing risk analysis using monthly conflict data on African civil wars between 1989 and 2010 supports this argument.

Suggested Citation

  • Wood, Reed M. & Kathman, Jacob D., 2014. "Too Much of a Bad Thing? Civilian Victimization and Bargaining in Civil War," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 685-706, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:44:y:2014:i:03:p:685-706_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tiffany S Chu & Jessica Maves Braithwaite, 2018. "The effect of sexual violence on negotiated outcomes in civil conflicts," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(3), pages 233-247, May.
    2. Gaku Ito & Kaisa Hinkkainen Elliott, 2020. "Battle Diffusion Matters: Examining the Impact of Microdynamics of Fighting on Conflict Termination," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(5), pages 871-902, May.
    3. Kirssa Cline Ryckman & Jessica Maves Braithwaite, 2020. "Changing horses in midstream: Leadership changes and the civil war peace process," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(1), pages 83-105, January.
    4. Graig R. Klein & Efe Tokdemir, 2019. "Domestic diversion: Selective targeting of minority out-groups," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(1), pages 20-41, January.
    5. Michael Gibilisco & Brenton Kenkel & Miguel R. Rueda, 2022. "Competition and Civilian Victimization," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(4-5), pages 809-835, May.
    6. Jürgen Brandsch & André Python, 2021. "Provoking Ordinary People: The Effects of Terrorism on Civilian Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(1), pages 135-165, January.
    7. Kelly M Kadera & Sarah Shair-Rosenfield, 2018. "Gendered participation, well-being, and representations in political violence: An introduction," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(3), pages 211-214, May.
    8. Stephen Nemeth & Brian Lai, 2022. "When do natural disasters lead to negotiations in a civil war?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 28-42, January.
    9. Lisa Hultman & Jacob D. Kathman & Megan Shannon, 2016. "United Nations peacekeeping dynamics and the duration of post-civil conflict peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 231-249, July.
    10. Brian Blankenship, 2018. "When Do States Take the Bait? State Capacity and the Provocation Logic of Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(2), pages 381-409, February.
    11. Kirssa Cline Ryckman, 2020. "Lasting peace or temporary calm? Rebel group decapitation and civil war outcomes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 172-192, March.
    12. Govinda Clayton & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Siri A. Rustad & Håvard Strand, 2023. "Costs and Cover: Explaining the Onset of Ceasefires in Civil Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(7-8), pages 1296-1324, August.
    13. Robert Ulrich Nagel, 2021. "Gendered preferences: How women’s inclusion in society shapes negotiation occurrence in intrastate conflicts," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 433-448, May.

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