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Modelling and Forecasting the Mortality of the Very Old

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  • Currie, Iain D.

Abstract

The forecasting of the future mortality of the very old presents additional challenges since data quality can be poor at such ages. We consider a two-factor model for stochastic mortality, proposed by Cairns, Blake and Dowd, which is particularly well suited to forecasting at very high ages. We consider an extension to their model which improves fit and also allows forecasting at these high ages. We illustrate our methods with data from the Continuous Mortality Investigation.

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  • Currie, Iain D., 2011. "Modelling and Forecasting the Mortality of the Very Old," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 419-427, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:41:y:2011:i:02:p:419-427_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    2. Huang, Fei & Maller, Ross & Ning, Xu, 2020. "Modelling life tables with advanced ages: An extreme value theory approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 95-115.
    3. Li, Hong & Tan, Ken Seng & Tuljapurkar, Shripad & Zhu, Wenjun, 2021. "Gompertz law revisited: Forecasting mortality with a multi-factor exponential model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 268-281.
    4. Kevin Dowd & David Blake, 2022. "Projecting Mortality Rates to Extreme Old Age with the CBDX Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-11, February.
    5. O'Hare, Colin & Li, Youwei, 2014. "Identifying structural breaks in stochastic mortality models," MPRA Paper 62994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Carlo Giovanni Camarda, 2019. "Smooth constrained mortality forecasting," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(38), pages 1091-1130.
    7. Andrew J. G. Cairns, 2013. "Robust Hedging of Longevity Risk," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 621-648, September.

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