Contribution à l'étude du coût des sinistres automobiles

After having a look at the results obtained by adjustment of automobile claims amounts distribution, we research how the number and the time-configuration of past claims condition the claims law of probability. We have statistics about a group of 471 000 cars which was followed for three years: 1970, 1971 and 1972. We use mathematical technics and among multi-dimensional analysis, we use factorial analysis of correspondance (A.F.C.). A.F.C. permits us to show the link which exists between the claim amount of the third year and the number of claims during the two years before. A quantitative analysis of the corporal claims shows that, of the frequency of corporal claims during the third year growths up in function of the number of past claims, the expected corporal claims amount of the third year decreases as the square of the material claims number during the two first years.