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A New Approach to the Study of Ticket Splitting

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  • Burden, Barry C.
  • Kimball, David C.

Abstract

A new solution to the ecological inference problem is used to examine split-ticket voting patterns across states and congressional districts in the 1988 elections. Earlier studies of ticket splitting used either aggregate data, which suffer from the “ecological fallacy†and threaten individual-level inferences, or survey data from small, unrepresentative samples. We produce more accurate estimates of the proportions of voters splitting their ballots in each state and district, which enables us to examine variations across geographical units. We also clarify the connection between ticket splitting and divided government and test several competing theories about the causes of both. We find, contrary to balancing arguments, that voters are not intentionally splitting tickets to produce divided government and moderate policies. In most cases split outcomes are a by-product of lopsided congressional campaigns that feature well-funded, high-quality candidates versus unknown competitors.

Suggested Citation

  • Burden, Barry C. & Kimball, David C., 1998. "A New Approach to the Study of Ticket Splitting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(3), pages 533-544, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:92:y:1998:i:03:p:533-544_21
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    Cited by:

    1. Johnston, Ron & Gschwend, Thomas & Pattie, Charles, 2004. "On Estimates of Split-Ticket Voting: EI and EMax," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-40, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. Olga Orlanski & Günther G. Schulze, 2017. "The Determinants of Islamophobia - An Empirical Analysis of the Swiss Minaret Referendum," CESifo Working Paper Series 6741, CESifo.
    3. Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher, 2003. "Explaining Split‐Ticket Voting at the 1979 and 1997 General and Local Elections in England," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 51(3), pages 558-572, October.
    4. Arianna Degan & Antonio Merlo, 2006. "Do Voters Vote Sincerely? Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-006, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Jan 2007.
    5. Arianna Degan & Antonio Merlo, 2006. "Do Voters Vote Sincerely?," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Camille Kelbel & Virginie Van Ingelgom & Soetkin Verhaegen, 2016. "Looking for the European Voter: Split-Ticket Voting in the Belgian Regional and European Elections of 2009 and 2014," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(1), pages 116-129.
    7. Baodong Liu, 2007. "EI Extended Model and the Fear of Ecological Fallacy," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(1), pages 3-25, August.
    8. Albert Solé Ollé, 2010. "The Determinants of the Regional Allocation of Infrastructure Investment in Spain," Chapters, in: Núria Bosch & Marta Espasa & Albert Solé Ollé (ed.), The Political Economy of Inter-Regional Fiscal Flows, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Sarah Moon, 2024. "Partial Identification of Individual-Level Parameters Using Aggregate Data in a Nonparametric Binary Outcome Model," Papers 2403.07236, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    10. Jose M. Pavía & Antonio López-Quílez, 2013. "Spatial vote redistribution in redrawn polling units," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 655-678, June.
    11. Gschwend, Thomas, 2004. "Ticket-Splitting and Strategic Voting," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-06, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    12. Arianna Degan & Antonio Merlo, 2004. "Do Citizens Vote Sincerely (If They Vote at All)? Theory and Evidence from U. S. National Elections," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-014, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

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