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Guns and Butter and Government Popularity in Britain

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  • Norpoth, Helmut

Abstract

Britain under the government of Prime Minister Thatcher provides a unique opportunity to probe the effects of both war and macroeconomic performance on government popularity. Monthly ratings for Thatcher and Conservative-party support (June 1979 to July 1985) are examined by way of Box-Tiao intervention models. The model that best captures the impact of the Falklands War of 1982 is of the gradual-temporary variety: popularity gains accrued through the three-month war shrink in a geometric fashion. Nevertheless, they prove to be worth over five percentage points for the Conservative party a year later, in the 1983 election. Macroeconomic performance, meanwhile, is found to have an asymmetric effect on government popularity, with unemployment strongly significant but inflation not significant at all. Apparently, the British public is punishing failure (on employment) while letting success (on inflation) go unrewarded. Qualifications of the positive effect of war and the negative effect of macroeconomic performance are suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Norpoth, Helmut, 1987. "Guns and Butter and Government Popularity in Britain," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 949-959, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:81:y:1987:i:03:p:949-959_20
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerald T. Fox, 2009. "Partisan Divide on War and the Economy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(6), pages 905-933, December.
    2. Lis, Piotr, 2011. "Fatality sensitivity in coalition countries: a study of British, Polish and Australian public opinion on the Iraq war," MPRA Paper 61490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2013.
    3. William D. Baker & John R. Oneal, 2001. "Patriotism or Opinion Leadership?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 45(5), pages 661-687, October.
    4. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    5. Charles Pattie & Ron Johnston, 1998. "The Role of Regional Context in Voting: Evidence from the 1992 British General Election," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 249-263.
    6. Hemmens, Craig & Marquart, James W., 2000. "Friend or foe? Race, age, and inmate perceptions of inmate-staff relations," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 297-312.
    7. Fox, Gerald T., 2012. "Macroeconomic time consistency and wartime presidential approval," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 891-902.
    8. Jonathon M. Clegg, 2016. "Perception vs Reality: How Does The British Electorate Evaluate Economic Performance of Incumbent Governments In The Post War Period?," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _143, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Diana Richards & T. Clifton Morgan & Rick K. Wilson & Valerie L. Schwebach & Garry D. Young, 1993. "Good Times, Bad Times, and the Diversionary Use of Force," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 504-535, September.

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