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The Power of the States in U.S. Presidential Elections

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  • Rabinowitz, George
  • Macdonald, Stuart Elaine

Abstract

The Electoral College is a uniquely American political institution, yet its impact on both the power of the American states and the relative power of citizens living in different states is not well understood. Game theorists have broached the state power problem exclusively in terms of the size of each of the states. Empirical investigators have been less systematic, basing their analyses solely on which states have been close in a single election. In this paper we present a model of state power which combines the idea of the pivotal player from game theory with an empirical model of state voting. In doing so we provide a theoretically derived and empirically meaningful assessment of state power in presidential elections. We then trace the implications of the power of the states for the relative power of individual voters, finding large disparities between voters from different states.

Suggested Citation

  • Rabinowitz, George & Macdonald, Stuart Elaine, 1986. "The Power of the States in U.S. Presidential Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 65-87, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:80:y:1986:i:01:p:65-87_18
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    Cited by:

    1. Tovey, Craig A., 2010. "The instability of instability of centered distributions," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 53-73, January.
    2. Martin, Mathieu & Nganmeni, Zephirin & Tchantcho, Bertrand, 2017. "The Owen and Shapley spatial power indices: A comparison and a generalization," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 10-19.
    3. Jennifer Merolla & Michael Munger & Michael Tofias, 2005. "In Play: A Commentary on Strategies in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 19-37, April.
    4. Barry O'neill, 1996. "Power and Satisfaction in the United Nations Security Council," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(2), pages 219-237, June.
    5. Barr, Jason & Passarelli, Francesco, 2009. "Who has the power in the EU?," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 339-366, May.
    6. Claus Beisbart & Luc Bovens, 2008. "A power measure analysis of Amendment 36 in Colorado," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 231-246, March.
    7. Michael Munger, 2005. "Nineteenth-century voting procedures in a twenty-first century world," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 115-133, July.

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