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Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800–1971

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  • Gurr, Ted Robert

Abstract

This study reports the codification of basic authority characteristics of 336 national political systems (polities) that functioned in 91 nation-states between 1800 and 1971. In form the typical 19th-century polity was an autocracy with minimal functions. Its 20th-century counterpart was either an activist plural democracy or an activist autocracy. The incidence of system-transforming political change has been equally high and pervasive in both European and Third-world polities, but greater in the 20th century than the 19th. The data are used to test three hypotheses that attribute the persistence and adaptability of political systems to their authority characteristics. “Institutionalization†arguments about the stability-enhancing effects of complexity and directiveness receive no consistent support. Conventional beliefs about the greater durability of democracies vs. autocracies vs. anocracies (uninstitutionalized polities) are confirmed only in Europe in the 20th century. The most durable historical and Afro-Asian polities have been either autocratic or anocratic. The data generally support the hypothesis that “pure†political systems—consistently democratic or consistently autocratic—are more durable than systems of mixed authority characteristics. Long-term trends in political “development†and their determinants are discussed in the light of the findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurr, Ted Robert, 1974. "Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800–1971," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 1482-1504, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:68:y:1974:i:04:p:1482-1504_10
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    1. Alhaji Cherif & Kamal Barley, 2010. "Cliophysics: Socio-Political Reliability Theory, Polity Duration and African Political (In)stabilities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(12), pages 1-6, December.
    2. Sara McLaughlin & Scott Gates & HÃ¥vard Hegre & Ranveig Gissinger & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 1998. "Timing the Changes in Political Structures," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(2), pages 231-242, April.
    3. Bakkar Yassine & Ögcem Ali Recayi, 2019. "Democracy and Economic Development: Disentangling the Effect of Elections and Rule of Law," TalTech Journal of European Studies, Sciendo, vol. 9(4), pages 173-205, December.
    4. James Lee Ray, 2005. "Constructing Multivariate Analyses (of Dangerous Dyads)," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(4), pages 277-292, September.
    5. Alberto Chong, 2004. "Inequality, Democracy, and Persistence: Is There a Political Kuznets Curve?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 189-212, July.
    6. Peter Egger & Anirudh Shingal, 2021. "Determinants of services trade agreement membership," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(1), pages 21-64, February.
    7. Margaret G. Hermann & Charles W. Kegley Jr., 1996. "Ballots, a Barrier against the Use of Bullets and Bombs," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(3), pages 436-459, September.
    8. Schlumberger, Oliver, 2021. "Puzzles of political change in the Middle East: Political liberalisation, authoritarian resilience and the question of systemic change," IDOS Discussion Papers 5/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    9. María Clara Arroyo, 2018. "The Effect of Executive Constraints on Reform Implementation: An Empirical Analysis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0118, Department of Economics - dECON.
    10. David Carment & Patrick James, 1995. "Internal Constraints and Interstate Ethnic Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(1), pages 82-109, March.
    11. Vanessa A Boese, 2019. "How (not) to measure democracy," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 95-127, June.
    12. Wegenast, Tim, 2010. "Inclusive Institutions and the Onset of Internal Conflict in Resource-rich Countries," GIGA Working Papers 126, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    13. Helena Helfer, 2017. "Prosperity-Enhancing Institutions: Towards a Comprehensive Composite Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 805-845, December.
    14. Vanessa Alexandra Boese & Matthew Charles Wilson, 2023. "Contestation and participation: Concepts, measurement, and inference," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 89-106, June.
    15. Gary Lafree & Andromachi Tseloni, 2006. "Democracy and Crime: A Multilevel Analysis of Homicide Trends in Forty-Four Countries, 1950-2000," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 605(1), pages 25-49, May.
    16. Jamie Levin & Joseph MacKay & Anne Spencer Jamison & Abouzar Nasirzadeh & Anthony Sealey, 2021. "A test of the democratic peacekeeping hypothesis: Coups, democracy, and foreign military deployments," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 355-367, May.
    17. Mikael Sandberg & Per Lundberg, 2012. "Political Institutions and Their Historical Dynamics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-10, October.
    18. Jose Cuesta, 2013. "Theory and Empirics of Democracy and Crime Revisited: How Much Further Can We Go with Existing Data and Methodologies?," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 645-674, July.
    19. Krieger, Tommy, 2022. "Measuring democracy," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-063, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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