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Authoritarian Rallying as Reputational Cascade? Evidence from Putin’s Popularity Surge after Crimea

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  • HALE, HENRY E.

Abstract

When international conflict causes an authoritarian leader’s popularity to soar, extant theories lead us to treat such “rallying” as sincere preference change, the product of surging patriotism or cowed media. This study advances a theory of less-than-fully sincere rallying more appropriate for nondemocratic settings, characterizing it as at least partly reflecting cascading dissembling driven by social desirability concerns. The identification strategy combines a rare nationally representative rally-spanning panel survey with a list experiment and econometric analysis. This establishes that three quarters of those who rallied to Putin after Russia annexed Crimea were engaging in at least some form of dissembling and that this rallying developed as a rapid cascade, with social media joining television in fueling perceptions this was socially desirable.

Suggested Citation

  • Hale, Henry E., 2022. "Authoritarian Rallying as Reputational Cascade? Evidence from Putin’s Popularity Surge after Crimea," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 580-594, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:116:y:2022:i:2:p:580-594_14
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    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Nils D. Steiner & Ruxanda Berlinschi & Etienne Farvaque & Jan Fidrmuc & Philipp Harms & Alexander Mihailov & Michael Neugart & Piotr Stanek, 2023. "Rallying around the EU flag: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and attitudes toward European integration," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 283-301, March.
    3. Maria S. Tysiachniouk & Juha Kotilainen, 2022. "Intentional Communities Finding Space Amid Geopolitical Turmoil: Belbek Valley Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-28, September.
    4. Alrababah, Ala & Casalis, Marine & Masterson, Daniel & Hangartner, Dominik & Wehrli, & Weinstein, Jeremy, 2023. "Reducing Attrition in Phone-based Panel Surveys: A Web Application to Facilitate Best Practices and Semi-Automate Survey Workflow," OSF Preprints gyz3h, Center for Open Science.
    5. Ignacio Lago & André Blais, 2022. "Floods, terrorist attacks and the covid-19 pandemic: How the (de)centralization of power affects the rally around the flag," Working Papers. Collection A: Public economics, governance and decentralization 2208, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    6. Nils Steiner & Ruxanda Berlinschi & Etienne Farvaque & Jan Fidrmuc & Philipp Harms & Alexander Mihailov & Michael Neugart & Piotr Stanek, 2022. "Rallying around the EU Flag: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Attitudes toward European Integration," CESifo Working Paper Series 9883, CESifo.

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