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Trends in disguise

Author

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  • Brazauskas, Vytaras
  • Jones, Bruce L.
  • Zitikis, RiÄ ardas

Abstract

Human longevity is changing, but at what rate? Insurance claims are increasing, but at what rate? Are the trends that we glean from data true or illusionary? The shocking fact is that true trends might be quite different from those that we actually see from visualised data. Indeed, in some situations the upward trends (e.g. inflation) may even look decreasing (e.g. deflation). In this paper, we discuss this “trends in disguise†phenomenon in detail and offer a way for estimating true trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Brazauskas, Vytaras & Jones, Bruce L. & Zitikis, RiÄ ardas, 2015. "Trends in disguise," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 58-71, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:anacsi:v:9:y:2015:i:01:p:58-71_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Daoping Yu & Vytaras Brazauskas, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Operational Risk Modeling Due to Data Truncation: A Single Risk Case," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Alexandru V. Asimit & Raluca Vernic & Ricardas Zitikis, 2016. "Background Risk Models and Stepwise Portfolio Construction," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 805-827, September.

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