Dynamics of farm entry and exit in Canada

The dynamics of entry and exit are examined across different categories of farms depending on the timing of entry and/or exit through a detailed panel data set on Canadian agriculture. The decomposition highlights the differences in the groups of farms and provides information affecting entry and exit beyond what can be inferred from net exit numbers. While aggregate values show a gradual fall in farm numbers over time and suggest a sector in decline, the decomposition reveals that approximately one-third of farms in each census are new entrants but only half of these will be in operation by the time of the next census. The results of the analysis suggest that many of the factors that increase the probability of entry also increase the probability of exit; smaller operations, producing vegetable/horticulture goods, located in more densely populated regions, are more likely to enter the sector but also to leave farming. Multigeneration involvement and a possible succession plan also contribute to the longevity of the farm operation after it has been launched. The results also highlight the decline of the mid-size operations and the growing importance of large farms in the overall share of production.