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Are Pre-Election Polls More Helpful than Harmful? Evidence from the Canadian Case

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  • Jean-François Daoust
  • Claire Durand
  • André Blais

Abstract

The growing importance of polls in news coverage raises questions about whether legislators should regulate polls in election campaigns. Although restrictions are on the rise, little is known about some basic but important facts regarding polls. Who reads polls? Are citizens who are aware of polls more likely to change their voting behaviour? And do polls help them to better anticipate electoral outcomes? We answer these questions using data from the 2015 Canadian election. We show that being exposed to polls is not associated with voter's likelihood of changing their vote choice compared with their vote intention during the campaign, does not affect the propensity to turn out or abstain, but does improve their ability to forecast the winner. We conclude that polls are more helpful than harmful.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Daoust & Claire Durand & André Blais, 2020. "Are Pre-Election Polls More Helpful than Harmful? Evidence from the Canadian Case," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 46(1), pages 175-186, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:46:y:2020:i:1:p:175-186
    DOI: 10.3138/cpp.2019-011
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    Cited by:

    1. Samwel Mwita Gasuku, 2023. "Public Perception of Political Opinion Polls and Their Influence on People’s Voting Behavior: The Case of Mwanza City Residents," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, May.

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