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Kuznets versus kondratieff An essay in historical macroeconometrics

Author

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  • Claude Diebolt

Abstract

Spectral analysis has had limited applications in cliometrics to date. In this paper, it is used to determine, through international comparisons, the frequency of GDP series in the long run. A reminder of the spectral methodology (I) is followed by successive examinations of the series chosen, the treatment of these series and the results of the cliometric analysis (II). We show then the macroeconomic perspectives of this type of approach and we synthesise a new major result, i.e. the existence of a single intermediate Kuznets type cycle, in contradiction with the discourse around the dating of the famous cycles of Kondratieff type.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Diebolt, 2014. "Kuznets versus kondratieff An essay in historical macroeconometrics," Cahiers d’économie politique / Papers in Political Economy, L'Harmattan, issue 67, pages 81-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpo:journl:y:2014:i:67:p:81-118
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. José Luis Cendejas & Félix-Fernando Muñoz & Nadia Fernández-de-Pinedo, 2017. "A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870–2010): filtering, spurious cycles, and unobserved component modeling," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 93-125, January.
    2. Mark Knell & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "Tools and concepts for understanding disruptive technological change after Schumpeter," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    3. Vadim Kufenko, 2020. "Hide-and-Seek with time-series filters: a model-based Monte Carlo study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2335-2361, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spectral analysis; economic cycles; comparison; cliometrics; GDP; OECD; Kuznets.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B15 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary
    • B16 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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