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Prospectiva estratégica del subsector comercio del municipio de Ipiales – Colombia, hacia el ano 2030

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  • Chalapud, Eduardo D.

    (Corporación Unificada Nacional de Educación Superior CUN)

Abstract

En el presente artículo se realiza un estudio prospectivo del subsector comercio al por mayor y menor en la zona de frontera colombo – ecuatoriana, específicamente en el municipio de Ipiales hacia el ano 2030. Su importancia en la dinámica económica la posiciona como la principal actividad y fuente generadora de empleo, por ello es necesario su fortalecimiento examinando la influencia de diversos factores indispensables en el presente y su desarrollo en el futuro. Se examinan los factores de incidencia que son convertidos a variables clave por expertos utilizando el método Mic Mac; mediante el análisis de actores se constata las relaciones de convergencia y divergencia entre ellos y se realiza los escenarios utilizando el análisis Morfológico. Por último, se clasifican estrategias inmediatas, reto y menos urgente a realizar que, con su implementación facilita el cumplimiento del escenario apuesta. Se busca con ello redisenar la cadena de valor y de suministro, aprovechar la infraestructura vial, participar directamente con los centros de producción, fortalecer la asociatividad y el Clúster comercial de la frontera. ***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** This article is a prospective study of the wholesale and retail trade subsector in the Colombian-Ecuadorian border zone, specifically in the municipality of Ipiales, towards the year 2030. Its importance in the economic dynamics positions it as the main activity and source of employment generation; therefore, it is necessary to strengthen it by examining the influence of various indispensable factors in the present and its development in the future. Incidence factors are examined and converted into key variables by experts using the Mic Mac method; through the analysis of actors, the relations of convergence and divergence between them are ascertained and scenarios are developed using Morphological analysis. Finally, immediate, challenge and less urgent strategies are classified to be carried out, which, with their implementation, facilitate the fulfillment of the bet scenario. The aim is to redesign the value and supply chain, take advantage of the road infrastructure, participate directly with the production centers, strengthen associativity and the border trade cluster. ***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** Este artigo realiza um estudo prospectivo do subsector do comércio grossista e retalhista na zona fronteirica colombiano-equatoriana, especificamente no município de Ipiales, por volta do ano 2030. A sua importancia na dinamica económica posiciona-o como a principal actividade e fonte de geracao de emprego, razao pela qual é necessário reforcá-lo examinando a influencia de vários factores indispensáveis no presente e o seu desenvolvimento no futuro. Os factores de incidencia sao examinados e convertidos em variáveis-chave por especialistas utilizando o método Mac Miro; através da análise dos actores, as relacoes de convergencia e divergencia entre eles sao averiguadas e os cenários sao levados a cabo utilizando a análise Morfológica. Finalmente, sao classificadas estratégias imediatas, de desafio e menos urgentes, que, com a sua implementacao, facilitam o cumprimento do cenário. O objectivo é redesenhar a cadeia de valor e fornecimento, aproveitar as infra-estruturas rodoviárias, participar directamente com os centros de producao, reforcar a associatividade e o agrupamento do comércio fronteirico.

Suggested Citation

  • Chalapud, Eduardo D., 2022. "Prospectiva estratégica del subsector comercio del municipio de Ipiales – Colombia, hacia el ano 2030," Revista Tendencias, Universidad de Narino, vol. 23(1), pages 139-166, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000520:019971
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juan Guillermo VALDERRAMA & Federico MEDINA & Camilo PEÑA GÓMEZ & Freddy CASTRO & Daniela LONDOÑO, 2021. "Inclusión financiera empresarial: evidencia con registros administrativos," Archivos de Economía 19065, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    2. Michel Godet & Régine Monti & Francis Meunier & Fabrice Roubelat, 2000. "La caja de herramientas de la prospectiva estratégica," Working Papers hal-02185401, HAL.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    actividad económica regional; competitividad; organización de la producción; servicios; transportes.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production
    • L80 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - General
    • L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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