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Sincronización cíclica del sector manufacturero de méxico y estados unidos desde una perspectiva no lineal autorregresiva con transición suave

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriela Zepeda-Mercado

Abstract

Resumen El objetivo de este artículo es validar el modelo Autorregresivo de Transición Suave (STAR) para el análisis de la sincronización cíclica del sector manufacturero de Estados Unidos con México, a partir de la apertura comercial de este último. Para este fin se revisa la bibliografía sobre la metodología STAR y se describen los aportes teóricos y prácticos relacionados con esta. Teóricamente se concluye que debido a su estructura lineal intrínseca, los modelos STAR son capaces de guiar al investigador hacia la elección de la metodología adecuada para modelar el comportamiento real de los datos; además, gracias a su componente no lineal, poseen la capacidad de modelar comportamientos cíclicos asimétricos de las series.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriela Zepeda-Mercado, 2015. "Sincronización cíclica del sector manufacturero de méxico y estados unidos desde una perspectiva no lineal autorregresiva con transición suave," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 23(2), pages 163-175, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000180:014275
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelación econométrica; Series de tiempo; Modelos no lineales; Ciclos económicos.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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