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Impactos indirectos de los precios del petróleo en el crecimiento económico colombiano

Author

Listed:
  • González, Sergio
  • Hernández, Edwin

Abstract

Resumen: El presente trabajo estudia la relación existente para Colombia entre precios del petróleo y variables macroeconómicas como el producto interno bruto (PIB), la tasa de cambio real, el balance fiscal, entre otras, en dos horizontes de tiempo: 1982-2013 y 2000-2013. Se utilizan vectores autorregresivos para analizar las funciones impulso-respuesta; además, son usadas transformaciones de precios del crudo que permiten contrastar diversas hipótesis acerca de la transmisión de choques de precios a la economía. También se contrasta la evidencia internacional con el caso colombiano en torno a la hipótesis de que el principal canal de transmisión es el consumo privado, encontrándose evidencia de una relación entre consumo y PIB para ambos periodos de tiempo. Particularmente en el periodo 2000-2013, durante el cual el sector petrolero ha ganado participación en la economía colombiana, se encuentra que el consumo privado sirve como canal indirecto de transmisión de los precios del petróleo al PIB.

Suggested Citation

  • González, Sergio & Hernández, Edwin, 2015. "Impactos indirectos de los precios del petróleo en el crecimiento económico colombiano," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 84, pages 103-141, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000174:014668
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    precios del petróleo; impactos indirectos; funciones impulso-respuesta;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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