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La hidrología como predictor del comportamiento del precio de energía en bolsa

Author

Listed:
  • Barrientos Marin, Jorge
  • Toro Martínez, Mónica

Abstract

En este trabajo estamos interesados en estudiar el efecto de la hidrología sobre los precios de la energía eléctrica en Colombia y determinar si es un buen predictor del comportamiento del precio spot de energía. Para el objetivo se estiman modelos autoregresivos de retardo distribuido ARDL y una aproximación preliminar usando vectores autoregresivos VAR para estimación y pronóstico. La conclusión principal del trabajo es que dadas las condiciones del mercado eléctrico colombiano, la hidrología en efecto determina buena parte del comportamiento del precio de bolsa, aunque la demanda de energía también juega un papel preponderante. En cuanto al pronóstico los precios muestran una tendencia creciente para los próximos anos

Suggested Citation

  • Barrientos Marin, Jorge & Toro Martínez, Mónica, 2015. "La hidrología como predictor del comportamiento del precio de energía en bolsa," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 25, pages 125-140, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000165:014642
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Barrientos Marin & Elkin Tabares Orozco & Esteban Velilla, 2018. "Forecasting electricity price in Colombia: A comparison between Neural Network, ARMA process and Hybrid Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 97-106.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mercado de energía de corto plazo; precio; VAR; Función de Impulso Respuesta; pronóstico.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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