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La inflación bajo una perspectiva monetaria: Colombia, 1951-1963

Author

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  • Javier G. Gómez-Pineda

Abstract

El artículo estudia la inflación en Colombia durante la segunda posguerra y su relación con el crecimiento deldinero enellargoplazo. El artículo aborda eltemade losdesplazamientosde la velocidad de circulación del dinero por medio de una estimación de la demanda de dinero en donde la monetización de la economía sigue un proceso estocástico, específicamente una tendencia lineal local. Este proceso sirve para capturar de forma parsimoniosa y general desplazamientos graduales de la demanda de dinero originados tanto en la monetización como en la innovación financiera. En el artículo se evalúa la predictibilidad de la velocidad de circulación del dinero por medio de una medición de su error de pronóstico. Los resultados muestran que la velocidad no fue predecible debido a la magnitud del error de pronóstico. La principal implicación de política es que una vez estimados los desplazamientos de la demanda de dinero, el enfoque monetario puede dar información sobre la postura pasada de la política monetaria; sin embargo, como los desplazamientos de la demanda de dinero son impredecibles hacia el futuro, el enfoque monetario no permite anclar la inflación en el largo plazo. Otra implicación de política es que la estabilización del sector externo de acuerdo con el enfoque monetario de la balanza de pagos era difícil debido a la ausencia de relación entre el crecimiento del dinero y la inflación en el corto plazo.******The article studies inflation in Colombia during the second postwar period in relation to long-term money growth. The article deals with the shifts in the velocity of money by estimating a demand for money function where monetization follows a stochastic process, specifically, a local linear trend. This process enables us to capture, in a way that is both parsimonious and general, gradual shifts in the demand for money originated in monetization as well as financial innovation. The article evaluates the predictability of velocity by means of measuring its forecast error. The results show that monetization explains the shifts in velocity and that velocity was not predictable due to the size of the forecast error. The main policy implication is that once the shifts in money demand have been estimated, the model may give information about the stance of monetary policy; however, as these shifts are unpredictable into the future, the monetary approach may not enable us to anchor inflation in the long term. Another policy implication is that stabilization of the trade balance, according to the monetary approach to the balance of payments, was difficult due to the lack of relationship between money growth and inflation in the short term.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier G. Gómez-Pineda, 2016. "La inflación bajo una perspectiva monetaria: Colombia, 1951-1963," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 34(81), pages 229-241, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:015224
    DOI: 10.1016/j.espe.2016.08.001
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    Keywords

    Enfoque monetario; Demanda de dinero; Velocidad; Programas de ajuste; Inflación;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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