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Convergencia interregional en Colombia 1990-2013: un enfoque sobre la dinámica espacial

Author

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  • Fabián Camilo Gómez Rodríguez
  • Leonardo Santana Viloria

Abstract

Este documento analiza la convergencia del producto interno bruto per cápita (PIB pc) en Colombia durante el periodo de 1990 a 2013. Los resultados muestran un proceso de convergencia para los anos de 1999 a 2006, mostrando evidencia estadística a favor de la existencia de dependencia de error espacial. Para estos anos, los choques aleatorios en un departamento determinan el movimiento de las economías y la interacción sobre estas no está sujeta a los límites administrativos. Se puede observar un proceso de crecimiento para la región Andina y Caribe, caso contrario lo que pasa en algunas zonas de la región Orinoquia y Amazonas, lo cual permite concluir que el proceso de convergencia es causado por un proceso de factores espaciales no observables los cuales dieron una transición hacia el crecimiento de la región Caribe y Andina. Además, se mantienen constantes en el tiempo los departamentos con PIB pc alto y bajo. El principal aporte de este trabajo a la literatura sobre convergencia en Colombia es la incorporación en el análisis de los factores espacio y tiempo simultáneamente, así como la validación de la existencia de convergencia para el periodo senalado.******This paper analyzes the convergence of Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP pc) during the period 1990-2013 in Colombia. Results show a convergence process for the 1999-2006 period and statistical evidence for the existence of spatial error dependence. For these years, random shocks determine the movement of the economies and their interaction are not defined by administrative boundaries. A growth process for the Andean and Caribbean region is observed, contrary to what happens in Orinoquia and Amazon region. That convergence process occurred due to a process of unobservable spatial factors which gave a transition to the growth of the Caribbean and the Andean region. Besides, over time departments with high and low GDP pc remain constant. The main contribution of this work is the analysis on convergence that includes space and time factors simultaneously, as well as validation of the existence of convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabián Camilo Gómez Rodríguez & Leonardo Santana Viloria, 2016. "Convergencia interregional en Colombia 1990-2013: un enfoque sobre la dinámica espacial," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 34(80), pages 159-174, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:014688
    DOI: 10.1016/j.espe.2016.03.004
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    Keywords

    Convergencia; Panel espacial; Dependencia espacial; Disparidades; Región;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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