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Reforma tributaria e informalidad laboral en Colombia: Un análisis de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico

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  • Lina Marcela Osorio-Copete

Abstract

En 2012 el Gobierno Nacional de Colombia aprobó una reforma tributaria que tenía como objetivo central promover la formalización laboral. El presente documento busca evaluar la efectividad de esta reforma con un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico calibrado para Colombia. Dicho modelo cuenta con 2 sectores productivos, uno informal y otro formal, y una estructura impositiva que captura los cambios más importantes de la reforma. Los resultados indican que esta tuvo un impacto positivo en la reducción de la informalidad laboral en 2,3 puntos porcentuales. Además, al tener en cuenta el horizonte de pre-anuncio natural en una reforma tributaria, variables como la producción, el consumo, la inversión y la informalidad laboral tienen un comportamiento opuesto en el corto plazo cuando se comparan con los resultados de convergencia en el largo plazo. Es así como, una vez anunciada la reforma tributaria, se observa un aumento en la informalidad laboral, aunque este desempeno se revierte en el largo plazo. Este comportamiento es validado con los datos observados para Colombia después del anuncio de la reforma, lo que refleja la importancia de incluir en el análisis la temporalidad de los cambios de política para explicar la reacción que generan en las variables macroeconómicas.******The Colombian Tax Reform of 2012 had as main objective to promote labor formalization. This paper seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of this reform with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated for Colombia. This model has two productive sectors (formal and informal) and a tax structure that captures the major changes of the reform. The results indicate that the new tax policy had a positive impact in reducing labor informality by 2.3 percentage points. Furthermore, when we account for the natural pre-announcement period of any tax reform, variables such as output, consumption, investment and labor informality have the opposite behavior in the short-term when compared to their long-run dynamics. Thus, we find that once the tax reform is announced, an increase in informal employment is observed although this performance was reversed in the long run. We validate this behavior with the observed Colombian data right after the announcement of the reform. This result reflects the importance of including in the analysis the timing of policy changes to explain the response in macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Lina Marcela Osorio-Copete, 2016. "Reforma tributaria e informalidad laboral en Colombia: Un análisis de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 34(80), pages 126-145, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:014685
    DOI: 10.1016/j.espe.2016.03.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Montoya, J & Jurado, A., 2021. "Calidad del empleo agregado, formal e informal: un análisis para la economía colombiana en el periodo 2007 -2019," Documentos de trabajo - Alianza EFI 19290, Alianza EFI.
    2. Tapias, J., 2021. "Temporary employment, informality, poverty and inequality," Documentos de trabajo - Alianza EFI 20047, Alianza EFI.
    3. Salazar, M., 2021. "Tax policies, informality, and real wage rigidities," Documentos de trabajo - Alianza EFI 20044, Alianza EFI.
    4. Acosta-Henao, Miguel, 2023. "Law enforcement and the size of the informal sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas, 2017. "¿Cuánto tributan efectivamente el consumo, el trabajo y el capital en Colombia?," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 47(1 y 2), pages 97-135, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informalidad laboral; Política fiscal; Reforma tributaria; Modelos de equilibrio general; Choques anticipados y no anticipados;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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