Renewable resource management with environmental prediction

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Renewable resource management with environmental prediction

Author Info

Christopher Costello
Stephen Polasky
Andrew Solow

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Christopher Costello

Abstract

Variations in environmental conditions affect renewable resource growth. The ability to predict such variations is improving, providing scope for improved management. We generalize a common stochastic stock recruitment model to explore how optimal management changes with environmental prediction. We obtain three main results. First, while it might seem that a prediction of adverse future conditions should lead to more conservative management, the opposite may be true. Second, optimal management requires only a one-period-ahead forecast, suggesting forecast accuracy is more important than forecast lead time. Finally, we derive conditions on environmental fluctuations guaranteeing positive optimal harvest in every period.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 196-211
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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:34:y:2001:i:1:p:196-211

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Richard Carson & Clive Granger & Jeremy Jackson & Wolfram Schlenker, 2009. "Fisheries Management Under Cyclical Population Dynamics," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 379-410, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Richard Carson & CLIVE GRANGER & Jeremy Jackson & Wolfram Schlenker, 2006. "Fisheries Management Under Cyclical Population Dynamics," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2006-06, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
Gautam Sethi & Christopher Costello & Anthony Fisher & W. Hanemann & Larry Karp, 2004. "Fishery Management Under Multiple Uncertainty," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series 929, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Sethi, Gautam & Costello, Christopher & Fisher, Anthony C. & Hanemann, William Michael & Karp, Larry S., 2002. "Fishery management under multiple uncertainty," CUDARE Working Paper Series 929, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
- Sethi, Gautam & Costello, Christopher & Fisher, Anthony & Hanemann, Michael & Karp, Larry, 2005. "Fishery management under multiple uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 300-318, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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