Forecasts of exchange rate movements generally have a miserable record. Those complied by Consensus Forecasts concerning the euro have been true to form. Analysing the results of this survey indicates a worrying unanimity of error, which raises questions about the way forecasts are compiled. Are they not a result of herd behaviour? Also, if forecasts influence markets, at least in part, how is it possible to reconcile the expected appreciation of the euro from early 1999 to early 2001 with the depreciation that actually occurred?
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal La Lettre du CEPII.
Volume (Year): (2002) Issue (Month): 215 (September) Pages: Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML,
plain text,
BibTeX,
RIS (EndNote),
ReDIF