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Business cycles, bilateral trade and financial integration: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)

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  • Stéphane Zouri

Abstract

This paper identifies the determinants of synchronization of business cycles in ECOWAS, which is a key issue from the perspective of creating a single currency in 2020. Indeed, conducting actions in the direction of synchronization of business cycles is important because the asymmetries of cycles observed within a monetary union determine its sustainability. We go further than previous studies in this area, as we (i) take into account financial linkages, (ii) propose new measures to improve the quality of results, and (iii) pay attention to the structure of trade by analyzing inter-regional links. Moreover, to highlight the role of adopting a single currency in ECOWAS, we compare the West African Economic and Monetary Union and the non-monetary zone within the ECOWAS zone. We find that bilateral trade and financial integration are determinants of the synchronization of business cycles in the region, with the regional financial integration channel dominating the international one. Finally, we show that the weakness of intracommunity trade does not constitute a barrier to the monetary union, and that the launch of the single currency is a means to increase business cycles synchronization through bilateral trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Zouri, 2020. "Business cycles, bilateral trade and financial integration: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 163, pages 25-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2020-q3-163-2
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    File URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701719302203
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Léleng Kebalo & Hamitande Dout & Mawuli K. Couchoro & Stéphane Zouri, 2022. "Intégration – commerciale, budgétaire, financière – régionale et inégalités de revenu dans la Communauté Economique des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO)," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(S1), pages 102-116, July.
    2. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 190-201.
    3. Vigninou Gammadigbe & Sokhna Bousso Dioum, 2022. "Monetary integration in West Africa: Are business cycles converging?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 68-80, March.
    4. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Business Cycle Co-Movement in Europe: Trade, Industry Composition and the Single Currency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 121-139, February.
    5. Imen Mohamed Sghaier, 2020. "Does Financial Development Affect the Economic Growth Gains from Trade Openness?," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 666-682, December.
    6. Sedegah Kordzo & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "A Review of the Impact of External Shocks on Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Non-WAEMU Countries," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 31(3), pages 37-59, September.
    7. Mattera, Raffaele & Franses, Philip Hans, 2023. "Are African business cycles synchronized? Evidence from spatio-temporal modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Trade intensity; Financial integration; ECOWAS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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