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Choc des termes de l'echange et balance courante : Une estimation des effets de substitution en France (1972-1998)

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  • Zoulfikar Mehoumoud Issop
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    Abstract

    L'objectif de cet article est d'evaluer les effets des chocs temporaires des termes de l'echange sur l'epargne privee et le compte courant de l'economie francaise. Dans un cadre intertemporel distinguant la consommation des agents selon trois types de biens (importables, exportables et non echangeables), une strategie d'estimation en deux etapes permet d'estimer les parametres structurels qui expliquent les fluctuations du solde courant. Les valeurs estimees des elasticites de substitution intratemporelles et intertemporelles de la consommation sont relativement faibles en France de sorte que les effets de substitution ne compensent pas les effets de lissage intertemporel de la consommation (effets revenus). Un choc temporaire defavorable et non anticipe des termes de l'echange conduit donc a une deterioration du compte courant de l'economie francaise.

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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/francgraph/publications/ecointern/rev86/rev86b.htm
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

    Volume (Year): (2001)
    Issue (Month): 86 ()
    Pages: 27-47

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    Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2001-2tb

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    Keywords: Modele intertemporel de la balance courante; elasticites de substitution; lissage de la consommation;

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