This article presents alternative output trend theories and discusses different estimations for Chile’s GDP, using quarterly data from 1986 to 2001. Among methods considered are the Hodrick-Prescott filter, Quadratic and Gaussian kernels, the wavelets filter, and structural vector autoregressive models (SVAR). Output trend estimates are very sensitive to idiosyncratic assumptions. However, the Hodrick-Prescott filter and SVAR models look more accurate for generating output gaps related to variables such as inflation. We also present confidence intervals for these two methodologies.
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Article provided by Central Bank of Chile in its journal Economía Chilena.
Volume (Year): 4 (2001) Issue (Month): 2 (August) Pages: 27-58 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML,
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