The European construction industry up to 2011: Dark clouds but also a silver liningSelected results of the 2008 Euroconstruct winter conference

Last year European construction volume registered a decline of ca. 2½ percent. For 2009 the 19 Euroconstruct institutes, of which Ifo is part, expect an even more dramatic decline of ca. 4½ percent. The experts foresee stagnation in 2010 and a revival of demand not until 2011. Particularly responsible for the weak demand in European construction is the crisis in home construction. This construction sector, after the already weak year 2008 (minus 7 percent), will continue to lose momentum this year with a further decline of 7 percent. In Spain and Ireland the fall will be particularly dramatic. In these two countries home construction volume alone will halve in 2008 and 2009. The number of housing unit completions will fall in Spain from 800,000 in 2007 to only 300,000 this year. In Ireland, only 25,000 units will be completed this year, after almost 80,000 two years ago. European civil engineering remains the bright spot, which has been growing by 2 percent a year, on average, since 1997. The Euroconstruct experts anticipate that the volume of civil engineering in the 19 investigated countries will increase by ca. 3 1/2 percent for both 2010 and 2011.