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Das ifo Geschäftsklima als Indikator für die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts

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  • Erich Langmantel

Abstract

Das ifo Geschäftsklima gehört zu den bekanntesten deutschen Konjunkturindikatoren. In dem Beitrag wird gezeigt, daß sich mit seinen beiden Komponenten, Geschäftslage und Geschäftserwartungen, ein Prognoseansatz konstruieren läßt, der eine Vorausschätzung des realen Bruttoinlandsproduktes für bis zu vier Quartale erlaubt. Der Ansatz macht zwar eine detaillierte Konjunkturanalyse nicht überflüssig, weil er die Frage nach dem Warum des Konjunkturverlaufs nicht beantwortet, er kann aber einen wichtigen Beitrag zur Erstellung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Prognosen leisten.

Suggested Citation

  • Erich Langmantel, 1999. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima als Indikator für die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(16), pages 16-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:52:y:1999:i:16:p:16-21
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.

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