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Deutschlandprognose 2011: Aufschwung in langsamerem Tempo

Author

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft hat ihren vor mehr als einem Jahr begonnenen Aufholprozess mit hoher Dynamik fortgesetzt. Nachdem die Impulse dafür zunächst aus dem Ausland gekommen waren, gewann die Binnenwirtschaft 2010 mehr und mehr an Bedeutung. Besonders wichtig war dafür der Investitionsanreiz, der aus einem historisch niedrigen Zinsniveau resultierte. Im Jahr 2011 bleiben die Konjunkturampeln in Deutschland auf Grün, das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte – bei einem 67-%-Unsicherheitsintervall von 1,4 % bis 3,4 % – um 2,4 % steigen. Entscheidend hierfür wird voraussichtlich die Entwicklung der heimischen Nachfrage sein. Bei alledem ist zu erwarten, dass sich die Beschäftigungssituation weiter verbessert. Die Arbeitslosenquote dürfte auf 7,0 % sinken.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Deutschlandprognose 2011: Aufschwung in langsamerem Tempo," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(01), pages 5-14, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:18:y:2011:i:01:p:5-14
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Arent & Alexander Eck & Michael Kloß & Robert Lehmann, 2011. "Konjunkturprognose Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2010/2011: Normalisierung der Konjunktur," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(01), pages 14-22, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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