Le réchauffement climatique à l'origine de la crise du Darfour ?. La recherche scientifique menacée par le déni de la complexité

The Darfur crisis is admittedly the result of a growing discrepancy between population and resources which has led to heightening tension between tribal groups over access to land and water. The degradation of the environment has been observed for over half a century, due to a large extent to the lack of rural development efforts. The crisis that erupted in 2003 is therefore the outcome of a revolt of the population against the neglect and exploitation of Darfur by the Nile riverine elites. However, the flight of the villagers who escaped massacre by the army and its janjaweed militias only aimed at ensuring their immediate survival. The displaced persons camps do not provide any possibility of continuing agro-pastoralist activities. The alternation of climate cycles does indeed show a tendency toward the diminution of rains. But this has occurred several times in the past, and nothing allows it to be linked at this stage with global warming. The emergency displacements of population occurring during peak food crises as in 1984-85 or during war operations as in 2003-4, can therefore rather be attributed to the economic and social stagnation of which this region has been the victim.