Analyse des effets macroéconomiques des politiques wallonnes de rénovation des bâtiments publics : un exercice de simulation avec le modèle HERMREG

This article presents the main results of an ex-ante evaluation of the macroeconomic impact of Walloon energy renovation policies for public buildings proposed by the Marshall Plan 4.0. The macroeconometric, multiregional, and multisectoral HERMREG model is used to simulate the dynamic effects of a public investment shock over a period of five years, in the same vein as the analysis conducted at the national level by the Federal Planning Bureau using the HERMES model. The analysis focuses on the expected economic effects of the demand shock within a legislature (five years), while the positive impacts of potential greater energy efficiency (to be considered in a longer-term perspective) are not taken into account. We are interested in the effects of the increase in the public sector?s investment demand on regional value added and employment, as well as the positive effects in terms of household income and consumption. The impacts are measured for Wallonia but also for the two other Belgian regions (Flanders and Brussels-Capital). The effects on public finances are also measured, with a distinction by level of power (Federal State vs. Walloon Region).