L’instabilité politique et ses déterminants : un réexamen empirique

Many countries are undergoing political crises, sometimes with detrimental economic effects, without a deep analysis of the reasons for these political instabilities. A good understanding of the causes of these political instability events will allow better prevention and a reducing of their harmful effects. This paper aims to revisit the macroeconomic and institutional determinants of political instability. The study is based on a large panel of 84 developing countries, over the period 1975-2019. We propose a factorial approach of political instability, based on its formal and informal dimensions. The cross-sectional and dynamic panel tests confirm that improving of macroeconomic conditions reduces the level of political instability. Moreover, institutional variables significantly influence political instability. Finally, our findings suggest that contagion effects linked to geographical proximity and the age of the executive chief increase formal and informal political instability in the short run.