Démocratie et risque de conflits internes : une nouvelle perspective empirique

This article adopts a simultaneous equation approach to analyse the relationship be-tween democracy and the risk of internal conflict. Indeed, it integrates the reverse causality effect of the risk of conflicts on democracy, a relationship often advanced but little explored in the existing literature. Results obtained from a panel of 108 countries show that strongly democratic or autocratic regimes have a low risk of internal conflicts compared to partially democratized regimes, for which the risk is higher. Furthermore, the study shows that the risk of internal conflicts does not favour democratic consolidation. Particularly, political institutions in partially democratic regimes are generally unable to soften social contradictions by sometimes generating conflicts, which in turn undermine democratic consolidation efforts. Thus, efforts to strengthen democratic institutions will reduce the risk of internal conflicts. However, economic factors such as rising per capita income, inflation and social or geographic factors affect the risk of internal conflicts.