Stabilité du gouvernement et ajustement budgétaire de pays d’Afrique subsaharienne

This paper analyses the effect of government stability on fiscal adjustment episodes in twenty-seven sub-Saharan African countries. The methodological approach begins with the identification of adjustment episodes using the Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance (CAPB) technique. Two different definitions of fiscal adjustment episodes are used to capture the difference between large and small adjustments. Subsequently, a logit model is estimated to examine this relationship. The results argue that fiscal adjustment is explained by the political risk to which governments are subjected to. These results put forward two ideas. First, fiscal adjustment in many sub-Saharan African countries is not only explained by economic factors, but also the political and institutional characteristics of governments. Second, they highlight the role of institutional stability of governments as a combination of government unity, legislative strength and popular support.