Les effets de la crise sur les disparités locales de sorties du chômage : une exploration en Rhône-Alpes

While the risk of worsening disparities between regions in the context of persistent economic crisis is often mentioned in the public debate, there is little or no applied work that allow to support this finding. In this context, the aim of our study is to measure the effects of the crisis on spatial disparities in access to employment with a statistical and cartographic approach, implemented at a very fine scale on municipal data. From exhaustive job center data covering the entire Rhône-Alpes region, we assess the chances of leaving unemployment at the local level using proportional hazard duration models estimated with semi-parametric methods. Estimates are based on two cohorts of job seekers, followed before and after the crisis, by controlling their socio-demographic composition. Our results show that there is neither enlargement of space fractures nor convergence of territories: the overall crisis has left intact the (strong) spatial inequalities in access to employment. The analysis covers for several sub-populations, youth, seniors, low-graduates, recipients of the Rsa. Each time, the same conclusion is emerging, that of a homothetic transformation of spatial fractures.