Crise de la zone euro, asymétries et politiques budgétaires

Using a stock flow consistent model, we investigate the effect of several fiscal policies in monetary union. Five variants are analyzed: restrictive fiscal policy in the south, fiscal expansion in the south, fiscal expansion in the north, fiscal expansion in the whole area without and with intra-zone financing. Several findings emerge and illustrate the mechanisms at work in the crisis countries of Southern Europe. The establishment of a restrictive fiscal policy in South reduces public debt and the level of interest rates but at the cost of slower growth. The effect of a policy of increasing demand in the south is effective on growth but interest rates greatly increase. To avoid the explosion rates in southern countries without jeopardizing growth, only a political stimulus north can both boost production and reduce imbalances within the euro area. Finally, a recovery policy in the whole area is effective growth while limiting the increase in interest rates as long as financing intra-zone is important.