Guerre en Ukraine et hausse des tensions internationales : quel impact sur le PIB ?. Analyse empirique de l’économie mondiale et de six pays avancés à partir d’un indicateur de « risque » géopolitique

Russia?s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 delivered a major shock to Europe?s economy, which was already suffering from other constraints (supply difficulties, recruitment difficulties). The goal of this study is to explain the methodology used in the OFCE?s May and October 2022 forecasts to quantify the impact of rising geopolitical risk on its growth scenario. The indicator for geopolitical risk constructed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) is used to quantitatively measure the level of ongoing tension. By estimating the reaction function of GDP to geopolitical shocks, we estimate that the rise in geopolitical tension observed in 2022 could explain a fall in world trade in goods of 0.7 points (in volume) and a fall in world industrial production of 0.6 points. Furthermore, Germany could lose up to 1.1 GDP points in 2022. Elsewhere, the effects are smaller but significant: 0.4 GDP points in France, and 0.3 points in the US, Italy and the UK, with Spain suffering a loss of 0.2 points.