Partie I. Du coup de chaud au coup de froid. Perspectives 2022-2023 pour l’économie mondiale et la zone euro

Global economic activity rebounded strongly in 2021, with GDP rising 5.8% following a 3.5% decline in 2020. Supply problems persisted at the start of 2022. Russia?s invasion of Ukraine has ramped up tension on energy prices, particularly on gas prices, and greatly heightened geopolitical risks. Consumers and businesses are feeling the effects of this shock through reduced purchasing power and higher production costs. To combat inflation, central banks have begun tightening monetary policy, which is being reflected in higher interest rates. On the fiscal side, governments are taking measures either to curb price increases or to cushion the impact on incomes. The slowdown in economic activity should be confirmed at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. This freeze in activity should, however, be temporary. Households will be able to cushion some of the decline in their purchasing power by drawing on the savings they built up during the Covid crisis. Assuming that the geopolitical situation does not deteriorate and there is no further disruption of gas supplies, activity should gradually recover in the second quarter of 2023. At the global level, GDP will grow by 2.7% in 2022 and 2% in 2023. Some countries, notably Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom, will experience a slight recession, while the economies of France and the United States stagnate.