Le modèle « mixte » : un outil d’évaluation du choc de la Covid-19

The Covid-19 pandemic and the measures taken to stem the flow of the virus have resulted in an economic crisis of unprecedented scale and nature. In April 2020, the implementation of a severe lockdown caused economic activity to drop by nearly 31%. In November, after six months of living with the virus, the implementation of a second lockdown resulted in a fall in activity of "only" 7.5%. We use a modified version of Leontief?s (1944) open-ended model to study the diffusion of simultaneous supply and demand shocks through the productive fabric; this is what we call the "mixed" model. Based on our assessment, administrative closures alone explain 12 points of the fall in activity in April 2020 and 5.5 points of the fall in November. Supply shocks linked to labour or supply difficulties or to adaptation to health restrictions would in turn explain 10 points of the drop in value added at the worst moment of the crisis in April. They had no significant effect in November. Finally, the final demand shock explains 11 points of the fall in GDP observed during the April lockdown and 2 points of the fall in November. The redeployment of output from intermediate to final jobs preserved 2 points of GDP in April. These results suggest that all actors ? public and private ? have strongly adapted their behaviour, resulting in lockdowns that have less impact on economic activity.