« L’Allemagne paiera » (1918-1932). Chronologie d’un échec et essai d’analyse cliométrique contrefactuelle de l’impact générationnel des réparations allemandes

German reparations to the victorious countries constitute a brief history that stretches from 1918 to 1932. Although short, this period is intense in political and economic events that were to make the Treaty of Versailles a failure, or at least a prolonged armistice until the renewed outbreak of hostilities in 1939. This article attempts to understand how the resolution of the shock of the asset/liability reallocation brought about by the First World War ? the Allies were heavily indebted to the Americans; Germany had to pay a heavy commitment of reparations ? animated the interwar period. The article looks at the political and economic expectations at the time the peace treaty was drafted. It also shows how the question of the payment of reparations was linked to the settlement of inter-Allied debts, leading to uncoordinated strategies and ultimately to the abandonment of claims. Finally, this article develops a counterfactual cliometric analysis using a simple intertemporal public finance model that measures the budgetary needs and the intergenerational impact that the payment of reparations would have had if they had been paid in full. JEL codes: F34, H63, N42, N44