Évaluation au 26 juin 2020 de l’impact économique de la pandémie de la Covid-19 et des mesures du confinement et du déconfinement en France

We analyse the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting containment measures on economic activity, employment and the income of economic agents during the period from 17 March 2020 to 5 July 2020. The eight weeks of lockdown led to a 32% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP). During the period of gradual easing from 11 May to 5 July 2020, activity was down by only ‑11 GDP points compared to the pre-crisis situation, signifying a partial return to “normal” activity. The impact of the health crisis has been massive on the annual growth of French economic activity in 2020: during these sixteen weeks, the loss of GDP came to 165 billion euros and has pulled GDP growth for the year 2020 down by 6.6%. The automatic stabilizers and the policies implemented during the pandemic to preserve the economic fabric have led government (“APU”) to absorb 58% of the loss of activity. Households and individual entrepreneurs have suffered a loss of income of 14 billion euros, or nearly 10% of the total;business must therefore absorb a third of the loss of income, more than 50 billion. The losses in household income have been more than offset by the fall in consumption, generating “forced” savings that reached 75 billion euros over the sixteen weeks. This savings is concentrated in the wealthiest households. Short-time working has been a major tool for shock absorption. It allows companies actually hit by the impact of the pandemic to be compensated, while limiting the destruction of jobs and the loss of employee income. The main reasons for resorting to short-time working are changing: decreased activity during lockdown, childcare and vulnerability to the virus during the first phases of lockdown. While the use of the "vulnerable" device remains limited, it could be a more decisive factor in the coming months in the event of a possible resurgence of the pandemic.