Economic evaluation of autonomous passenger transportation services: a systematic review and meta-analysis of simulation studies

In order to prepare for their deployment, mobility simulations have been used since the mid-2010s to investigate the effects of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) services. The aim of this study is to provide a review of which impacts were considered in simulation studies, to what extent, and for which results, with an emphasis on economic impacts. Taking cost-benefit analysis (CBA) as a reference framework for the economic evaluation of mobility services, we first establish a list of standard impact indicators in CBA studies. We carry out a descriptive statistical analysis to investigate the use of these indicators, completed by a meta-analysis for the indicators that received sufficient coverage from the literature. The results show evidence of strong use of performance and operational indicators in the simulation literature, but also expose a lack of in-depth analysis concerning environmental and social indicators. With regard to the intensity of impacts, the introduction of autonomous taxis should increase vehicle- kilometers traveled (VKT) by +23% and travel time by +17% compared to conventional private cars. At the same time, it could help to cut 17% of the present fleet size. This performance could be improved if autonomous taxis were shared, limiting the increase of VKT to +6% at the cost of only slightly longer travel times (+20% instead of +17%), while also increasing fleet reduction by up to -55%. Compared to conventional bus or train lines, these on-demand AV services could permit travel time to be reduced by half and could also reduce financial operating costs. On the other hand, they would increase fleet size and VKT by three to seven times their initial values. AV impacts could vary considerably depending on the socioeconomic landscape of the implementation area. Our findings call for evaluating AV services from a wider perspective than operational and financial prisms alone as is currently the case, such as using cost-benefit analysis. JEL classification: H43, L92, L91.