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La dynamique de la dette et du déficit publics en périodes de récession et d’expansion

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  • Yannis Maël Largent

Abstract

In this paper a Bayesian threshold VAR with debt dynamics is investigated in order to assess whether the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the deficit and public debt dynamics differ according to economic conditions. The main findings show that: 1) the Consumer Confidence indicator is sensitive to business cycle fluctuations and affects the predictions of the deficit and public debt-to-GDP ratios; 2) the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the deficit ratio are stronger in recession but more persistent in expansion state; 3) the safest ways for reducing the deficit and public debt ratios during economic slack are stimulating growth and confidence or a fiscal consolidation. Classification JEL : C11, C13, E62, H68.

Suggested Citation

  • Yannis Maël Largent, 2017. "La dynamique de la dette et du déficit publics en périodes de récession et d’expansion," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(4), pages 571-594.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_684_0571
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    Cited by:

    1. Sèwanoudé Honoré HOUNGBEDJI, 2021. "Budget policy, economic cycle and debt in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries: Empirical evidence based on a regime change model," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(629), W), pages 151-168, Winter.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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