La demande de monnaie dans la zone euro revisitée. Un effet de richesse dans un environnement variable

The paper presents an empirical analysis of the demand for money in the euro area (M3) over the period 1981-2008. To explain the rapid growth of money since 2001, wealth variables are taken into account though real stock and house prices. Two different estimation techniques have been used: an econometric framework of a Vector Error Correction Model and a Time Varying Coefficient Model. The first approach shows that by including wealth variables in the model, we obtain an apparently stable model over the period 1981-2007, but the extending of data period affects its stability and calls into question its relevance. The second approach points out the instability of the money demand function? the coefficients of elasticity and semi-elasticity vary over time ?and shows evidence of a positive relationship between real house prices and broad money demand (M3). Thus, housing wealth plays an important role in capturing the portfolio behaviour of holding money during the first decade of this century. Classification JEL : C22- C52-E41