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Impacts économiques d’un modèle épidémiologique : le cas guadeloupéen de COVID19 dans un modèle EGC-MS-SMA

Author

Listed:
  • Sébastien Mathouraparsad
  • Bernard Decaluwé
  • Sébastien Régis

Abstract

Using a computable general equilibrium model, we simulated the economic effects related to the health crisis in the case of a small island economy that depends on the outside world. The model assumes a supply shock (closure of non-priority activities), a labor productivity shock (linked to the absenteeism of infected cases), and a demand shock (lockdown reducing the consumption of non-priority goods and services and increasing that of essential goods and services). According to our results, whatever the shock envisaged, the macroeconomic effects are very negative, with a fall in GDP, an increase in unemployment, and the economic crisis also increasing household monetary poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Sébastien Mathouraparsad & Bernard Decaluwé & Sébastien Régis, 2023. "Impacts économiques d’un modèle épidémiologique : le cas guadeloupéen de COVID19 dans un modèle EGC-MS-SMA," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(4), pages 99-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:meddbu:med_204_0099
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