IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cai/finpug/fina_353_0053.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The 99% Market Sentiment Index

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Roger

Abstract

We build a market sentiment index based solely on the changes over time in the number of different stocks held by individual investors. No prices, returns or trading volumes enter the definition and trades of unwealthy and underdiversified investors are overweighted in our sentiment index. Using the trades and portfolios of a large sample of 87,373 French investors over a eight-year period, we show that our index outperforms other usual indices (based on surveys, macro-economic variables or buy-sell imbalances) in predicting short-term returns on long-short portfolios based on size or on the book-to-market ratio. An increase of one standard deviation of our market sentiment index in a given month implies a decrease of 1.05% of the return on such a long-short size based portfolio the following month. A simple dynamic strategy driven by our sentiment index delivers a Sharpe ratio higher than that of random dynamic strategies in 99.6% of cases and a much higher Sharpe ratio than the one of a buy-and-hold strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Roger, 2014. "The 99% Market Sentiment Index," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 35(3), pages 53-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:finpug:fina_353_0053
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=FINA_353_0053
    Download Restriction: free
    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-finance-2014-3-page-53.htm
    Download Restriction: free
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Aubert & Niaz Kammoun & Yacine Bekrar, 2018. "Financial decisions of the financially literate," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 39(2), pages 43-91.
    2. Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Intraday online investor sentiment and return patterns in the U.S. stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 25-40.
    3. Aissia, Dorsaf Ben, 2016. "Home and foreign investor sentiment and the stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 71-77.
    4. Dorsaf Ben Aissia, 2017. "The mispricing of equity risk: behavioral and corporate leverage factors," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(6), pages 421-432, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:finpug:fina_353_0053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cairn.info/revue-finance.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.