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Comment le Nord a transféré au Sud son risque de surmortalité : un modèle simple

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  • Patrick Guillaumont

Abstract

The lockdown policy used in the Global North to combat COVID-19 has had the effect of transferring the excess mortality attributable to the virus to the Global South, thus avoiding excess mortality itself. This is due to (i) the major recession caused by this policy, (ii) its transmission to the South, and (iii) the excess mortality that this recession in the South has caused. A simple model illustrates the three stages of this transfer of excess mortality and suggests that the excess mortality thus induced by the recession in Africa is much greater than that which is directly due to COVID-19. Codes JEL: I12, I15, I18, 055.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Guillaumont, 2021. "Comment le Nord a transféré au Sud son risque de surmortalité : un modèle simple," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 29(1), pages 5-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:edddbu:edd_351_0005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortality; infant and child mortality; income elasticity of mortality; lockdown; Africa; growth transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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